The latest CBS News/New York Times poll contains an interesting tidbit (pdf file) about a potential Obama-McCain match-up, particularly considering the tilt of the poll.

According to the poll, "McCain now holds a three-point lead over Obama among women; last month, women gave Obama a 13-point margin."

As a point of comparison, the CNN exit poll after the 2004 presidential election showed Democrat John Kerry winning the women's vote by a three-point margin.

November's a long way off, but if that six-point swing among female voters holds up for McCain, it's a big, big development if Obama is the Dems' nominee.

The 16-point, one-month turnaround in the CBS News/New York Times poll -- in a poll where Dem respondents outnumber Repub respondents by about 9.6% -- might be even more significant as it also shows the Dems with a generic congressional lead of 18-points, the same predicted margin of victory for the Dems shown in the last CBS News/New York Times poll before the 2006 mid-terms (pdf file) -- a poll which missed the actual result by 12 points. (TE- The poll missed by 10 points, not 12. )

I suspect the 35.7% of the poll's respondents who self-identified as independents contain more Dem leaners than Repub leaners, which significantly increases the 9.6%-margin the Dems enjoy in the poll.

As an historical note, in the 32 House elections since 1942, the Dems have never enjoyed an 18-point margin of victory in the aggregate House vote, coming close twice, in 1964 and again in 1974, when they won in historic elections by margins of 14.5% and 16.6% respectively, one about a year after the murder of President John F. Kennedy, and the other three months after the resignation of President Richard M. Nixon.

Meanwhile, the Gallup tracking poll has McCain with a six-point lead over Obama.

There's still a long way to go, but does this CBS News/New York Times poll mean that Barack Obama is in bigger trouble than anyone thinks?