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Friday, April 4. 2008The Latest CBS News/New York Times PollTrackbacks
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This poll and most other main steam media polls are mathematical garbage. They are designed to influence not inform and are insidious propaganda devices. But more fundamental than that is the tainted credibility of the authors (CBS News/New York Times).
As my old wrestling coach used to score it: Two points, Takedown! Nice work, Tom.
The mindless MSM has long ago ceased its function of "reporting the news" to actively being a participant in the news in that it works diligently to affect the outcome of events, ie. bogus poll numbers to influence how the public votes.
This is easily proven in the way the MSM jumped on the early vote polls in the 2004 Presidential election, intentionally omitting the party affiliation and sex (democrat and female) of those polled and thus giving kerry a false advantage. In the 2000 Presidential election, the media began reporting that algore won Florida before the polls in the western panhandle (mostly Republican) had closed. This was a deliberate act to discourage Republican voters in that area of Florida as well as New Mexico and any other state where the race was close. An estimate of the lost Republican votes in the Florida panhandle alone was in the 10 of Thousands. The media today is no longer interested in reporting the news, its main objection today is to control the outcome of events that make up the news.
The media-industrial complex is not the free press of the Founding Fathers. It is an unelected and unaccountable shadow government whose policies and actions are determined solely by the prejudices, self-interest, and depraved value system of its members.
Consider the demographics of people sitting at home with nothing better to do than answer 10 minutes of questions from a random caller. Unemployed. Idle. Democrats.
The tranparent bias in this is another example of why I do not believe the left will push a revival of the Orwellian-named "fairness doctrine." Left-wing anti-free speech activists make a lot of noise about silencing Limbaugh et al, but that is window-dressing and hype for the Che t-shirt wearing, media-worshipping consumer units who make up the rank and file of the pop-left.
The last thing the real leaders of the left want is a court test of the fairness of their own media, the "MSM." That WILL happen if the "fairness doctrine" takes loyal Americans off the air.
With any poll, you have to consider the margin of error due to statistical sampling.
CBS/NYT states that the margin of error for their poll is +/- 3 percentage points. That means that, for example, Obama-McCain could actually be 44% to 45%, and Hillary-McCain could actually be 45% to 46%. When the margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points, then if the two candidates are separated by only 5 points, all you can say is that the race is a statistical dead heat. I get so incensed when I see news media claiming that "In the poll, Smith leads Jones by TWO POINTS!" when that is well within the margin of error. All you can say at that stage is that the race is statistically too close to call.
You are correct about looking at the Demographics. Unfortunately (and I this is painful for me) Pew and Rasmussen report the same thing. Here's Rasmussen
"In February, the number of Democrats in the United States soared to the highest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports—41.5%. In March, despite the squabbling among their leading Presidential candidates, the Democrats held on to those gains--41.1% now consider themselves Democrats. Those figures reflect a sharp increase from the 36.3% who considered themselves Democrats in December 2007. (see history from January 2004 to present). The number of Republicans remained fairly steady in March at 32.1%. That’s up just three-tenths of a percentage point from February but down two full points from 34.2% in December. " Rasmussen Reports April 3rd
I would note two things about your observation:
1) Given this estimation by Rasmussen, there still remains a spread in the margin between Rasmussen and CBS News/New York Times of between 2 and 5 points; and 2) Given Rasmussen's margin between the two parties, why does Rasmussen show McCain with a lead over Clinton of five- and Obama of three-percentage points? http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history I wonder if the difference might be explained by how self-described independents leaned... |
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