The Republican primary in New Hampshire has been repeatedly referred to as the "shallow end of the pool" on MSNBC TV by Keith Olberman (who predictably started it) and others. Democratic turnout is high, but Obama isn't winning (so far), and certainly doesn't seem slated for the double-digit victory the starry-eyed media predicted.

Since Obama's victory in Iowa, pundits have anointed him the frontrunner and the founder of a new political movement in the US. A large turnout in New Hampshire was supposed to be proof of his drawing power.

There are a few holes in that theory, however.

New Hampshire is becoming more Democratic, mostly as a result of people from Massachusetts moving there. They leave Massachusetts to escape what the Democrats have wrought: high taxes, burdensome bureaucracy, corruption, etc., and gravitate to New Hampshire's lower taxes. But they bring their Democrat votes with them.

It was 60 degrees in Southern New Hampshire today. History tells us that young people and Democrats are more likely "fair weather voters," that is, older folks and Republicans are more likely to vote no matter what, whereas Democrats vote in larger numbers when the weather is good. Ironically, this means Democrats should root for global warming.

Independents tend to choose to vote in the primaries of the party that doesn't currently hold the presidency. It's no surprise, then, that independents are voting in the Democratic primary today.

If Obama does in fact win big in New Hampshire, then he can lay claim to the lead. Not sure that makes him a movement. But if the early returns are an indication, the bulge of Democrat voters didn't show up in waves necessarily to vote for him.