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Tuesday, March 13. 2007Gallup Poll on Global Warming Illustrates Hysteria on IssueTrackbacks
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The British Channel 4 documentary
"The Great Global Warming Swindle" is well worth viewing for another point of view on Global Warming. It's about 1 hour and 14 minutes long, with the first half concerning the science and the last half concerning the political implications. (It's not a BBC production, no matter what the headline says). http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4520665474899458831&q=The+Great+Global+Warming+Swindle
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26842
The question asked is: "Next, as you may know there is a lot of talk these days about global warming and what its effects might be. How worried are you that each of the following will happen as a result of global warming -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all? " Most of the 55% (assumption based on the overall results) fall into the "somewhat worried" category, and note there is no 100-year timeframe on this question - a far cry from the false claim of "55% of Democrats believe the human race will be extinct in 100 years due to global warming."
Baloney! Read the poll results again.
As you note, the question was the following: "Next, as you may know there is a lot of talk these days about global warming and what its effects might be. How worried are you that each of the following will happen as a result of global warming -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?" Here is one of the seven responses: "Human life will cease to exist on earth." As reported by Gallup, 55% of self-identified Dems are either very, or slightly worried that "Human life will cease to exist on earth" as a result of global warming in the next 100 years. I suggest that you read it again.
The question that involves the "55% of Democrats" answer does not involve a 100-year timeframe. Click the link and analyze this for yourself.
Also, worry or concern about an event occuring between now and the life of the planet does not equate to belief. For instance, I might be worried of being the victim of a terrorist at some point in my life but it doesn't mean that I believe it to be a likely event.
You're right to say that the survey doesn't say 55% within a 100-year time frame, it's 100-plus years.
I would note that the survey didn't ask if hundreds of thousands would die; it didn't ask if millions would die; it didn't even ask if 20% of the world's population would die; it said "extinction." In other words, beyond calamitous. In addition, I believe the analogy you use is a false one. You should have stated it thusly: "I am worried that the human species faces extinction as the result of a terrorist act." That more aptly describes the ridiculousness of the survey respondents' beliefs. And I would ask you: In light of John Edward's latest comments regarding the impact of global warming compared with that of a world war, how do you feel his campaign strategists read the poll?
'You should have stated it thusly: "I am worried that the human species faces extinction as the result of a terrorist act."'
Global warming affects the entire planet as opposed to a single terrorist act, so this is a false analogy. Scientists have a reasonable understanding of the potential results in the 100-year timeframe, which certainly doesn't include human extinction (a few other animal species perhaps). At least 10% in another Gallup poll question of this survey chose this as their "best guess", 3% of who chose "within 10 years". That scenario seems so absurd that you have to wonder if a few people who aren't serious about the poll are choosing that just because it's funny. Regardless, we should be concerned about that potential 10% since if their "best guess" was true, few options exist other than an immediate halt to industrialization or worse. Given an open-ended timeframe to the other question (i.e. 1,000 years, 10,000 years, 1 million years or more), the unknown and untested long-term effects of industrialization, the potential for problems to compound, scientists general lack of understanding of results in the more distant future and the profoundly catastrophic nature of the event of human extinction, I don't think it's entirely irrational to have some worry about the effects on more distant generations. This worry doesn't imply belief that it's a probable scenario though. My personal view is that humans are highly adaptable to even the worst-case scenarios but my confidence over the long-term in that belief is limited given the inherent uncertainty. Accelerating our moves towards alternative fuels and limiting carbon output seems like a tiny sacrifice in the big picture, and the benefits of such moves extend beyond global warming concerns. "And I would ask you: In light of John Edward's latest comments regarding the impact of global warming compared with that of a world war, how do you feel his campaign strategists read the poll?" I'm not familiar with Edwards' comments but for their sake I hope they don't overplay it. For the most part Gore's documentary conveyed the scientific consensus accurately (based on survey results of scientists). If Democrats stray too far from this and into the "Day After Tomorrow" realm, they're in trouble. Views of Republicans being anti-science or having their hands tied by industry will be overshadowed by Democrats greatly overstating the real threats.
Wow, the insurance companies that got hammered by Katrina could get well in a hurry selling catastrophic, civilizaton-ending insurance to the Dems. It's a natural fit.
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