Fun With Numbers

Friday, August 5. 2005

A new AP-Ipsos poll shows President Bush's job approval rating at 42% and approval for the war in Iraq at 38%. This certainly doesn't sound good for the president.

However, a closer look at the poll reveals that 49% of respondents described themselves as Democrats and 39% said they were Republicans. Click here for a breakdown of the poll (pdf file). (via The Buzz)

Can anyone say with a straight face that this is an accurate party breakdown of the American voting public? In what universe?

I mean outside of the mainstream media...

Update: Additionally, 31% of the poll's respondents were between the ages of 18-34. This significantly overstates the percentage of people in the age group that voted in 2004 -- and, if you remember, it was the only age demographic in which John Kerry prevailed in the 2004 presidential election.

Update II: 14% of the respondents said they were unemployed; the country's unemployment rate is around 5%-6%.

Posted by Tom Elia in Media at 11:40 | Comments (10) | Trackbacks (4)

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Double check that employment statistic. I can't remember how unemployment is calculated, but more people are not working than are "unemployed".

You don't want make the same skewing mistake that the original poll did.

#1 Josh Davenport on 2005-08-05 19:58 (Reply)

Josh,

You make a good point about the possible difference, though I wonder if there are almost two times as many people who don't work as there are unemployed folks seeking work.

There was a separate designation in the poll for retirees as well....

Tom

#1.1 Tom on 2005-08-05 20:17 (Reply)

Another 17% indicated their profession as "suicide bomber."

#2 iowahawk (Homepage) on 2005-08-05 20:04 (Reply)

Haha! Remember the exit polls?

#3 Anonymous on 2005-08-05 21:32 (Reply)

Another interesting statistic: 24% listed their profession as "regular commenter over at Atrios' place"

#4 Jeff G (Homepage) on 2005-08-05 22:28 (Reply)

Re #1

The U.S. unemployment statistics are derived from the "Household Survey". A representative sample of households are called and interviewed. People are not counted as unemployed if they choose not to work. For example, a stay at home mom would not be counted. The AP-Ipsos poll is clearly flawed in this respect, as it makes no provision for the “stay at home mom”. The Census Bureau estimates that there are roughly 5.5 million “stay at home parents”. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there are about 142 million employable persons. A quick back of the envelope calculation comes up with 3.9% of the employable population is not working by choice. The bias in the AP-Ipsos pole is obvious. The popular myth that unemployment is understated is usually due to ignorance of how it is calculated. The myth is usually based on the belief that unemployment is determined by counting the people on unemployment insurance and that people whose benefits have run out are not counted. This is simply not true.

#5 Greg F on 2005-08-06 06:16 (Reply)

So what's new, folks? This is the AP (Associated Phables).... you remember....the news agency that reported that the crowd boo'd when President Bush, at a campaigne rally in 2004, wished Bill Clinton a speedy recovery from his upcoming heart surgery? Tapes of the rally showed that the crowd actually cheered, not boo'd. After all, their motto is "All the fabrications fit to print". Heh.

#6 Vulgorilla on 2005-08-06 07:56 (Reply)

Polls reflect the views of those who paid for it, follow the money

#7 Virginia Weicheld on 2005-08-06 08:20 (Reply)

RE: #5

Thanks for the info. However, my point is not about underestimating unemployment. I'm merely pointing out that if the methodologies are different, comparisons of the results are dubious.

It does appear that the difference between the poll results and national statistics is too large to be merely methodological. Is that a word?

#8 josh davenport on 2005-08-06 12:05 (Reply)

You think Bush has it bad? You should see what the AP polls said about Lincoln in 1863.

#9 papertiger on 2005-08-06 17:54 (Reply)

Bush is to Lincoln as Fiddy Cent is to classical music.

Go ahead and do the statistical analysis with APs numbers using 40-40-20 D,R,I breakdown.

What do you end up with?

Still not pretty is it?

#9.1 MVM on 2005-08-06 21:21 (Reply)

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