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Monday, October 23. 2006A Little History for the HyperventilatingTrackbacks
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Nice write up! Although, in fairness, the current situation is different in that the Civil War had a definable end. What is the ending event on the War on Terror? The recent changes are for all practical purposes permanent changes.
"Although, in fairness, the current situation is different in that the Civil War had a definable end."
Not in 86, '62 and '63 it didn't. The definable end came afterward
Point well taken, but it seems a stretch to compare the war in Iraq to our own Civil War. Of course ANYTHING is possible, but it seems to me more like Vietnam, except worse, in that there we had the North Vietnamese to come in and restore a bloody order. When we declare victory and retreat from Iraq, can we rely on Iran to come in and shape things up?
Well. certainly, stranger things have happened. Maybe if Iran became a genuine superpower, then they would have to start acting like one. Good.... now I feel better about GWB's bold venture in the snakepit. Dwight
Of course there are many, many differences between the US Civil War and what we are fighting now. But they are of little importance. What is the same is that in the Civil War, as now, America was threatened with destruction as a nation. The South attempted to break up the US and when the North said "No" we had war. The war on terror is similar in that the enemies decided to destroy America, just like the Confederates hoped they could do. Since they are a rag-tag bunch without a clearly defined state, defining an end to the war will be a matter of statistical analysis - body counts, deaths per day, number of attacks, etc. But in no case can we - nor should we - shy away from fighting a determined enemy simply because the complexities of this particular conflict make cut-and-dried definitions of "victory" and "the end of the war" difficult.
When the enemy gives up its notion of attacking Americans and America, we will be at the end. Cutting and running will only guarantee more attacks. Even bin Laden has said so, pointing to our constant running from attacks until 9/11. He was sure we would not respond. Now he is cowering in some cave (if he's alive at all) because he misjudged us. Unfortunately, many Americans have made exactly the same mistake as bin Laden.
Dwight: that it "seems" more like Vietnam to you could easily be a product of the people of our generation, especially academics and journalists, who keep claiming that. I think the other evidence is week. If you check up on the Copperheads, the parallels are striking. I also note strong similarities to the US war in 1814-15 on the pirates in the Mediterranean, the European struggles with the anarchists in the late 19th - early 20th C, the Malay rebellion, and the French and Indian war. Vietnam is among the least similar wars to the present conflict.
What did we win in Vietnam? In retrospect, we really did do something to hold both the Russian and Chinese communists at bay, though I wish it could have been more. As both were hegemonic, they had to be opposed somewhere. I am not sure what country you think would have been a better place to make a stand, but am willing to consider alternative nominations. We seldom get good choices in wars against crazed ideologies, just bad ones and worse ones. If you wish to maintain that it was not necessary to make a stand anywhere, then I would expect powerful evidence to dissuade me from my current point of view.
I don't know about there being a "definite" ending to the civil war. It certainly wasn't guaranteed. Thousands of southern soldiers and officers were fully prepared to fight a guerilla war against Union troops after the surrender at Appomatox (sp). It was mainly the admonishment of General Lee to his troops to go home, plant farms and be good citizens that spared us this end. Otherwise, we could have seen a southern "insurgency" with no "definite" end.
The insurgency continued through 1876, and in early 1877 the Republicans negotiated a withdrawal from the south and ended Reconstruction.
The indefiniteness is besides the point. As argued by Posner in "Not a Suicide Pact":
1. An increase in national security threats require a rebalancing of civil liberties and public safely concerns via a narrowing of the scope of rights. 2. As more has been learned about the terrorism threat post 9/11 the scope of rights was widened even though the threat in ongoing. I quote Posner further here: http://emirateseconomist.blogspot.com/2006/10/give-us-body-new-editor.html
Ever since I saw Olberman on a talk show I wrote him off as a personality disordered flake. He was so phony and uncomfortable in his own skin, I renounced any thoughts of him having anything wise to say. He was damn funny and entertaining on ESPN though.
Not wise to arrest Pelosi and Reid; they do more good for the president left in place.
Sulzberger and Keller, on the other hand...
"it seems to me more like Vietnam, except worse, in that there we had the North Vietnamese to come in and restore a bloody order. When we declare victory and retreat from Iraq, can we rely on Iran to come in and shape things up?"
You view that as a GOOD THING?!?!? Yeah, MILLIONS dead, the "boat people", etc, was just "restor[ing] a bloody order". That is what happened when you LOSE (by our own choice, due to false beliefs fostered by the media, I might add - militarily, we beat the North repeatedly and badly). That is, the point of the fighting was to PREVENT that from happening (which was guarranteed by treaty... which the North just ignored whn they were ready). In the case of Iraq, Iran entering Iraq would be the same - a foreign power's military conquest and permanent annexation of a neighbor. And you view this as a positive?
the North Vietnamese to come in and restore a bloody order.
Yes, and it's a good thing we had the Germans to come into France and Poland and restore a bloody order.
1. Anyone who thinks the Soviet and Chinese "control" of these sub-states represented a good thing is simply evil or ignorant.
2. We win in Iraq when a representative goverment is able to excersice full military control of it territory - as it does in some provinces now. The US military can still be involved, but just not as primary. The criteria is not zero terrorists, zero sectarian strife, or 100% approval rating - if they were the USA would be a failure by the same standards. 3. The only comparison b/n Iraq and Vietnam is: we are kicking ass from a military standpoint AND the only way we lose (over time) is through media. 4. We would have been much better off - if we had drawn a line in the sand against comunism right after WW2. If we had told Stalin that the poeple of Eastern Europe would chose their own goverment - w/o his interference, if we had told China and Russia to get out of Vietnam and Korea - or face a full military campaign by the US for the entire country. Instead we hemmed and hawed for 40 years, selling out others. 5. I have no dellusions that Iraqi people may chose to split things up - I have no dellusions that they may chose to become our enemies. In that case they will reap what they sow. When a dictator forces his country into insanity, I feel bad for the people, and regret action we're forced to take that hurts them. When a goverment of and by the people follows the same path, then they will reap what they sow. For example, Palestine.
Oops, Excuse me, I forgot that we could have won in Vietnam, if we had just stayed the course. Remind me again, just what it was that we were winning and would have won if we had stayed. Yep, I admit that I forgot that we were winning and just got snookered out by a bogus Tet Offensive and 55+ thousand deaths of a lot of guys my age, with little to show for it except we killed 10 of them, both Northern and Southern folk for every one of us. Yeah we won that way, but how else?
As for Iraq, I guess I think that it would be better for Sadaam to still be there, riding herd on the mob scene than for GWB to march us in to liberate them, and then find out that they are beyond our ability to control. At least we are keeping the number of dead Iraquis at many multiples of our own dead, so by Vietnam standards some of you may think that we are winning, but again I ask, winning what? Yes, of course it is POSSIBLE that something good may emerge from the chaos in Iraq, but if it were a bet, would you take it? My point about Iran was that a broken chaotic Iraq, like the Palestinian "State" would breed more terrorists than an Iranian caliphate. The only plus is that broken states are less likely to have nukey stuff to export to the bad guys. Dwight
The more things change....
What if the defeatists got their way back then? Should we trust the defeatists now?
According to http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2005/20051229.html
"Booth wrote several letters and articles that were critical of President Lincoln's conduct of the 'War Against the Southern Rebellion.' Booth believed that Lincoln's suspension of the writ of habeas corpus during the war was wrong, and that Lincoln was acting above any body of American law, and like a dictator if not a tyrannical monarch." Sound familiar? |
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