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Wednesday, February 1. 2006A Lasting Impression from Last Night's State of the Union AddressTrackbacks
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The Speach writers know exactly where the applause lines are in these speaches. If you ask me that is the most brilliant use of expected behavior I have ever seen in a public speach. Someone should give them and the President credit. Set Spike
Even the look on the Presidents face said I can't believe they were stupid and dogmatic enough to fall for it.
Jim,
The first thought I had was..."There's a great campaign commercial!" And not only in that instance, but for the NSA, Patriot Act, and all the other times it happened.
The fact is democrats do not support the proposal put forth by Bush. American citizens, by and large, did not support his proposal either. That does not mean the two groups do not support social security reform. As for the applause being a brilliant campaign commercial for the next half century you underestimate the American attention span.
The democrat reaction was akin to a High School Sophmore class at an assembly, the class has come up with a plan to mock the principal(GW). Hillary was a complete parody with her poodle skirt, white bucks and a mouthful of gum. This would have been fun if we were not at war and facing a Social Security crisis.
The amazing part, is they were smiling and laughing while doing it. It's people like me they were laughing at. They did'nt have to pass Bush's but they could of worked at fixing a problem, instead of being happy they made it worse.
And they thought Bush was dumb.
You're right, they were in effect laughing at all of us.
Many people might not understand this now, but over time they certainly will.
I guess I'm not the only one who sat in stunned disbelief when the Democrats cheered because Congress didn't enact Bush's proposal to save Social Security. They actually cheered because nothing was done about Social Security reform. I ,too, hope that clip is played repeatedly during election season. I believe it will resonate with voters.
Everyone on this string that faults the Democrats for not engaging Republicans in the Social Security debate have a very uninformed impression of how congress is being run at this point in history. Republicans have locked Democrats out of the legislative process including denying Democrats the chance to add amendatory language to proposed bills, participate in planning committees are generally denying democrats the chance to have their ideas heard. Social Security privatization, not "reform" was the goal of President Bush. The Democrats didn't stop reform, they prevented the whole-sale destruction of one the the last refuges of poor people. Granted, the system is ailing but piling risk on the elderly while shifting broker commissions to the private sector is a recipe for disaster. Just watch the enfolding Enron trial to see where your retirement would end up if Bush had succeeded with his so-called reform.
Joe,
I couldn't disagree more. Debate doesn't happen only within the halls of Congress, it happens many in places all over the country. And the inescapable fact is that the Dems engaged in the debate almost nowhere, and when they did, at best echoed much of what you just wrote, which isn't exactly empirically based, and is wholly misleading as to some particulars. Why would they do this? The Dems did what they did because it works. However, merely engaging in demagoguery on the issue -- as the Dems have done for about 25 years now -- will not work forever. I think it will come back to haunt them.
Joe,
I disagree, they exert more control than you might think, but even if what you say is true it doesn't change the appearance of what they did during the speech or the fact that it was probably carefully scripted by a very intelligent speech writer that understands the Dem knee jerk response better than they do themselves. Even if you are a Democratic supporter... Especially if you are a Democratic supporter you should be working to control these visceral and self-destructive instincts within the party. Right now the Republicans often successfully play on the Democrats prejudices and hatreds like a violin. A perfect example is Alito. They allowed themselves to be evenly divided. They should have embraced (or at least accepted) the decision like the Republican’s did Ginsberg. If they had then they would have had more ammo next time when they had a chance to win. Alternatively they should have organized sooner and forced the debate now. There is a time to fish or cut bait. A valid opposition is an important part of a working two party system and unfortunately right now that seems to be collapsing. I hope it doesn’t. I don’t think I would like either of the two major parties having near total control.
I completely agree. See my blogpost about it here:
http://www.familygreenberg.com/2006/02/congressional-decorum.html That being said, I thought the Republicans were equally classless when they jumped up in counter-applause to the next line: "Yet the rising cost of entitlements is a problem that is not going away. And every year we fail to act, the situation gets worse." So now, we've got members of Congress applauding the fact that are entitlements problems are getting worse. Does that make any kind of sense?!?
"So now, we've got members of Congress applauding the fact that are entitlements problems are getting worse. Does that make any kind of sense?!?"
Actually, it makes more sense than what the Dems did. The Dems, of course, were congratulating themselves on stopping a major White House initiative. That may resonate with the wackos, but, given the serious issue involved, will not resonate with most voters. Looking smug about doing nothing to prevent a looming crisis is not a winning strategy. The "counter-applause" was signalling agreement that action must be taken before the problem gets far worse. In other words, they weren't applauding the tragic fact that the problem's getting worse but supporting the call to action implicit in the words "every year we fail to act". Actually that could make a great commercial too: Show the President's line, and the GOP applause. Then do a quick voiceover or message: "At least one party understands that we must act soon. What does the other party think?" Give the President's first line, and show the Dems applause. Message: "They'd rather applaud themselves for doing nothing. America needs new ideas, not no ideas. [Show picture of old folks] Make sure that those who have worked so hard aren't left in the cold while Congress pats itself on the back for doing nothing . [Fade cold old people into Dem applause] Support Reform to avoid the coming Social Security Crisis. Vote GOP."
I agree with what you said. I also like how Bush gave them a week to come up with an alternative solution and it's been over a year and they still have no solution! I remember them all saying this was no magic bullet last year! Thomas Sowell of course responded in a column called Social Insecurity saying that people who use terms like "magic bullet" should not be taken seriously, of course he was right, because they have no solution but to raise taxes which has been the norm and will have no affect unless the taxes are sky high! Even then it will probably have no impact accept hurting the progress made on the existing tax cuts.
It was great when the Democrats cheered-took Bush completely by surprise. His plan was absolutely awful, and thankfully no one took action on it. I cheered too on that line.
Of course Social Security does need help, and everyone stood and clapped on that one.
Sammy's right. Like the Congressional Democrats, I cheered, too. Good riddance to really bad public policy. Hey, go ahead and make a big commercial out of it for Republicans. That'll help, oh yeah. Most people thought it was a humorous and entirely appropriate moment.
So do you believe Social Security in fine shape? If not, what do you think should be done to fix it?
Just what was it about Bush's plan you found so objectionable? Do you think paying an average of $1,000 per recipient is an acceptable return after paying into the system for say, 40 years?
A picture circulated on the net of a USC cheerleader mistakenly cheering when Texas scored against her team in the Rose Bowl. Democrats cheered at their own fumble last night.
It's all about dignity. The Dems talk a great deal about not getting respect, yet they continue to act like silly little boys and girls. Sooner or later, American voters are going to tire of a party that can call names, point fingers, play silly games and never, never suggest a workable solution that can counter the President's ideas. Like Hamas, in order to lead one must stop throwing bombs and accept responsibility. I just can't see the Democratic leadership meetin the challenge.
Brother, is this an uptight website. Sounds like the book by Solzhenitsyn, "We Never Make Mistakes". Have you folks ever met a Conservative who was wrong about something? Normal people (like Sammy) have. It's the real reason why Bush is so disliked.
Re. Social Security, the best single federal program ever devised (by Democrats), and the savior of US capitalism when it was on the ropes. Maybe if the Bush Administration hadn't racked up such an enormous federal debt (largely the result of its tax cut policy), the government could devote attention to paying the social security IOUs that have been promised. But oh no, that's not a mistake, even though it primarily rewarded those who won't ever need social security. No surprise that all the statistics show the rich getting richer and most people getting poorer. That Bush debt is being put on social security recipients of the future. So keep cheering, Democrats. The people are behind you on this one..
Don,
Where do I begin? Since you find us so "uptight," I will respond thusly: 1) You clearly aren't a regular reader of our Web site, otherwise you wouldn't say that we don't criticize conservatives. 2) Social Security, although a fine idea (and certainly the best program ever instituted by the Dems), wasn't "the savior of US capitalism when it was on the ropes." That's just excessive hyperbole. 3) The deficits racked up during the Bush Administration are not due largely to the tax cuts, as you write. They are due to increased defense spending and almost out-of-control entitlement spending. 4) "Almost all the statistics" do not show the "poor getting poorer." Over the last 30 years, in fact, it's quite the opposite. Tom
Well, Tom:
no need to belabor the Conservative political fantasy of "we can't be wrong" and "the other side is imploding" for too long. The lasting impression I have from the Bush State of the Union speech is similar to yours, but perhaps with a different "meaning": The Democratic cheering, and Hilary's bright, intelligent smile are like a shot across the bow of right-wing conservative politics in 2006. It's back to the future for the Democrats. Re. your comments on Social Security. The Fund currently has $1.7 trillion in reserves, and some basic corrections now could easily erase the undire shortfall years from now. One would be a fair, progressive tax system. Interesting that you should argue that the Iraq war and "entitlements" are the cause of the deficit. The same entitlements weren't a problem during the Clinton Administration, which ended with a surplus. Far as the war goes, it's been a colossal and sad waste of money and American and Iraqi lives, again a reflection of bad policy. In January, 2006, based on US census figures, the gap between rich and poor has grown significantly over the last two decades, with the poor and middle class falling farther behind. Don't believe it? Check it out. OK, this one's getting old, New guy, but as the Governor of California might say, "I'll be back."
Don,
1) There are no reserves for Social Security. There is no trust fund for Social Security. The "bonds" you refer to pay no interest until they are "redeemed." There are currently no funds set aside to pay those bonds off. The "bonds" are an accounting device, or an IOU. They are not publicly traded for a reason -- the have no real value, other than the federal government’s promise to pay. How the goverment will meet its obligations under the program has not been dealt with. And we still have not addressed the fact that the average SS recipient recieves just about $1,000 per month, that 20%-25% of SS recipients receive SS as their only source of income, and that 40%-45% get at least half of their income from SS. 2) The Iraq war and the growth in entitlement programs are indeed the primary cause of the deficits under Bush. Two-thirds of the budget consists of entitlement programs. Medicare and Medicaid are growing much faster than inflation, and that, coupled with the prescription drug benefit, will only accelerate in the out-years. Look at the numbers. 3) The Clinton Administration saw four surpluses in eight years. There was still a total national debt of around $5 trillion when President Clinton left office (not a mythical $5 trillion dollar surplus that so often gets bandied about). A look at the cash flow of the federal treasury provides overwhelming evidence that the source of the increase in revenue came from cap gain taxes, a result of the stock market bubble. (The stock market's total capitalization went from about $4.5 trillion to over $14 trillion between 1996 and 2000. That oversized move probably brought in anywhere from $600 billion to $800 billion in extra revenue during those four years.) 4) The much ballyhooed "gap" that has occurred between rich and poor does not indicate that the poor are getting poorer, just that they are not seeing increases in income and wealth as fast as are middle class and upper middle class folks. In fact, the poor have seen their incomes grow at about 14% after inflation in the last two decades, the middle class about 18%, and the upper middle, and upper income by 55%. How this indicates that the poor are “getting poorer” is beyond me. Would they be better off if the top two quintiles saw their income grow by 20% instead of 55%?
Tom:
Two problems the Conservative mindset has: 1. it believes its own propaganda; and 2. it changes the subject to something different when unable to address the issue. The Social Security System is indeed a fund, based on a "pay-as-you-go" principle (just like your checking account is a fund if even if you pay the entire balance out in bills every month and then put more in). And there is a $1.7 trillion Social Security Fund Reserve, invested in US Treasury Bonds (one of the safest investments in the world, and an obligation that has been and is always paid off, plus interest,and will keep being so as long as there is a US Treasury. It isn't a question of funds set aside, but rather one of ongoing funding. I agree that it is too bad that Social Security payments may be inadequate for many, though they are guaranteed, plus cost-of-living, and provide a sure safety net for all. But that's a different question: do we want to increase benefits? With a Bush privatization plan, the heart of this debate, pulling 2% or more out of payroll taxes going into the System would be a disaster, for future recipients, who would eventually face up to a 50% cut in benefits, and by adding trillions to government debt in one short generation. Plus, counting on the stockmarket is risktaking for those who can't afford it; they might gain a little, or lose alot. Congressional Budget Office data show that in 2003 and 2004, the cost of the tax cuts was nearly 3 times the cost of the Iraq war. War costs have been going up, for sure, along with the cost of the tax cuts, which if extended to 2013 will cost $4 trillion. Deficits forever... You misconstrued my comment about the rich and the rest of us, perhaps on purpose. The gap is widening, which is the meaning of "the middle class and poor falling farther behind". And say if you're right about the 14% and 18% more value income they've had over the last twenty years. At less than 1% a year (and getting 20 years older), that's pathetic, especially since in the previous 20 years, they lost value in income. The point of all of this is to highlight the bad policy-making of the Bush Administration (much of it designed to purposefully weaken the Social Security System, which Conservatives don't like anyway). Most people recognized this, and that Democrats helped sink it should be celebrated. A solution to the shortfall problem can be found in making the tax system fairer, not loading up the rich with tax cuts.
Don,
You are incorrect about a "Social Security Trust Fund" being invested in regular treasuries; they are not. The "bonds," which are actually IOU's, are not currently interest bearing, they only promise to pay with interest, at some future date. That is a very critical difference, one which you don't seem to believe. But you could look it up. You and I seem to have a completely different take on the stock market, which has never seen any 15-year period (starting anywhere in the last 80 years) that has lost money. Similarly, it has seen no 20-year period where the return has been less than 3%. That's not made up out of thin air. The fact is, whether the system stays the same, or if it changes, it depends on GDP growth; if there is no growth, Social Security will have trouble paying out. Changing to stocks and bonds is simply an operational change -- the bet remains the same. But it seems apparent to me that we'll never agree on that. Oh well. Best, Tom |
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