This analysis is both astute and lacking in a long-term sense. No coalition lasts forever, but you are quite correct that the Republican majoritarian coalition is a) at least as viable as the revered New Deal Coalition, despite receiving about a tenth of the academic recognition, and b) won't be going anywhere anytime soon, due largely to the unity of rural, exurban, and suburban America on most big issues (taxes, security, marriage, entitlements). The GOP is now the party of low taxes and big spending, maintaining the big, popular New Deal programs while attempting to reform them to make them work more "conservatively." This, of course, is helping to create a perfect storm of unthinkable debt and unsustainable costs for the next generation, but for now, regular middle class suburbanites are happy to see their parents get their Social Security checks, their children get their student loan checks, and for they themselves to get their paychecks with a lower tax rate than under Clinton. That combination alone will keep the GOP coalition together at least until the Boomers start to retire and bust the state's retirement and health care budgets.

The other factor that will allow the conservative coalition to hold for another decade or two is the need for a complete cleansing of the Democratic Party. The once-great farmer/labor coalition is now a clearinghouse of far-left interest groups, labor unions, and aging socialists and their progeny at blue blood universities. In that sense, it is fitting that Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi are its spokespersons. The Democratic Party must be purified by fire; only then will it be revived, probably in the same way that the GOP was under the Kristol/Buckley crowd and under Reagan, who used a dying party as a vessel for realignment and a new majority coalition.

Until the Dems have their own Bill Buckley and Barry Goldwater to transform liberalism into something that makes sense for the 21st Century, most people will continue to vote Republican. Still, in order to minimize infighting and the desire for a new coalition, the GOP has to watch out for the two things that destroyed the Democrats in the 60s and 70s. The first is foreign policy. The current GOP coalition was one that was brought together to fight Communism. It is not equipped to deal with the war on terror. Pat Buchanan and Bill Kristol could agree on the Soviet Union. That was a different kind of war. They'll never agree on the Middle East, and neither will the conservative majority in this country. Going too far to either side --- either the neocon way or the isolationist way --- will cause a 1968 style meltdown among GOP voters.

Comparably, social issues are a major point of contention between the various factions of the coalition. The New Deal Coalition did fine until it tried to take national stances on social issues. Doing so helped bring about its demise. Similarly, if the GOP attempts to become the party that wants to nationally outlaw abortion, gay marriage, or other private acts, instead of simply leaving those issues at the state level and letting each state craft its own policies on marriage and abortion, those very libertarians and moderates that gave Bush his margin of victory in 2004 won't be there for future elections.

Finally, the post-Bush GOP needs a leader that can connect with those parts of Middle America that are flirting with turning Red but just couldn't embrace Bush. I'm talking about the Rust Belt --- states like WI, MN, MI, and PA. These states must turn Red if the GOP is to solidify its stance as the party of the Middle American middle class, and thus the majority party. The GOP has maxed out its House and Senate seats in the red states. The very reason it won't gain seats in 2006 is that most of the seats that are up are in blue states, and many in the purple Rust Belt states I mentioned. Moreover, a victory of more than 300 electoral votes is not a possibility without these states. The Republicans have to resist the temptation to nominate a dark-red southerner with a thick accent and cowboy boots in 2008 if they want to connect with the upper midwest. A candidate like Rudy Giuliani --- who gets along well with the GOP establishment, including its socially conservative leaders, and who enjoys high marks with the grassroots as well --- has the crossover appeal and cultural connection with the Rust Belt to flip this region once and for all, the way TR completed the GOP transformation of the country about 100 years ago after two close elections involving McKinley.