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By Tom Elia
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
The New Editor
People in the predictive business of stock, options, and futures trading are fond of saying,
"The trend is your friend."
There is of course no shortage of political predictions this year. While virtually every political
pollster reports that the country is pretty evenly split, these polls represent specific moments
in time, much like a snapshot from a camera. While snapshots are certainly useful in these
matters, America's current political trends may be more accurately interpreted using a wider
time frame, as in that of a movie.
A review of American political trends over the last 140 years might be the grist for such a
movie, which could be accurately titled "The Trend is the Republicans' Friend."
After the birth of the modern Democratic Party beginning around the 1828 election of
Andrew Jackson, and following a 32-year period of Democratic Party dominance, there have
been two significant trends in the history of the competition between America's two major
political parties -- and a third trend may have already started.
In the first trend from 1861-1933 (the Democrats took the House back in 1931), and shortly
after the party was founded in 1854, the Republicans dominated US politics, retaining the
White House for 52 years out of 72, winning the Senate for 60 years out of 72, and holding
the House of Representatives for 46 years out of 72.
During this period, the Republicans held the White House, Senate, and House concurrently
for just over 26 years; the Democrats did so for only 8 years.
Likewise, in the second trend between 1933-2001 (the Republicans actually took back the
House and Senate in 1995) the Democratic Party dominated American politics, winning the
White House 40 years out of 68, holding the Senate for 52 years out of 68, and retaining the
House for 58 years out of 68.
Democrats held the White House, Senate, and House concurrently for 32 years during this
time; the Republicans managed to do so for only 2 years.
Note that these two periods were similar in length and breadth, as well as in depth, of
political domination; it would seem obvious that after such a long period of momentum in one
direction, a reversal in another direction might carry with it a signal of significant change.
In order to better understand the importance of such a signal of change -- and how hard it is
to accomplish -- it is useful to examine the overall strength of the recently reversed
Democratic trend and why a change in direction carries with it the significance it does.
In the Senate during the 62 years between 1933-1995, the Democrats held a majority for 52
of those years. During that time the Democratic Party won between 54% and 67% of Senate
seats, holding between a 10-seat and a 33-seat majority for 52 years.
In the House between 1933-1995, the Democrats held a majority for 58 out of 62 years. For
the entire period between 1933-1995, the Democratic Party held an average of just less than
60% of House seats. The party retained an 86-seat average edge over the Republican Party
for 62 years, not an insignificant margin or time span.
For almost all of those 62 years, the Democratic Party held significant majorities in both
houses of Congress; by themselves, these margins of majority in Congress illustrate the great
strength of the Democratic Party during this time. These margins are only emphasized more
resoundingly because they were maintained throughout a 62-year period of time.
However, this dominance ended when the Republicans won simultaneous majorities in the US
House and Senate in the 1994 election, and for the first time since before FDR's presidency
the Republicans held onto these majorities for more than one election cycle when the party
again kept more seats in 1996, 1998, and 2000 (only a defection from the Republican caucus
after the 2000 election temporarily erased its effective majority in the Senate, which was
regained once more in 2002).
Taking this into consideration, it is not outrageous to suggest that a new trend may well have
started at the federal level; in so doing, it is important to remember the length of the two
previous trends (60 to 70 years) and to note that this latest change occurred only ten years
ago.
This new trend may have manifested itself at the state level as well.
In 2002, for the first time in 50 years, the total number of Republican state legislators in the
US was slightly larger than those from the Democratic Party.
In the 1970s, Democratic state legislators outnumbered Republican legislators about 2 to 1.
Since then, Republicans have made steady gains against the Democrats, erasing their
commanding lead, eventually moving to approximate parity, even overtaking them slightly.
This reversal is quite pronounced, and it obviously took some time to develop.
As the San Diego Union-Tribune's Joseph Perkins has noted, in 1984 the Democratic Party
controlled 26 state legislatures (holding both the state House and Senate simultaneously) and
the Republicans held 11; by 1994, the Democrats controlled 18 state legislatures and the
Republicans held 19; now, in 2004, the Democrats control 17 state legislatures and the
Republicans 21.
This represents a net reversal of majority control of nine state legislatures in the last 20 years,
plus one additional Republican pick-up.
Similarly, there has also been a trend on the state executive level in the last 20 years, again
toward Republicans. In 1984 there were 35 Democratic governors and just 15 Republicans;
in 1994 there were 29 Democratic governors and 21 Republicans; today there are 22
Democratic governors and 28 Republicans.
That's a reversal of 13 governors' mansions in favor of the Republican Party in the last 20
years. Republicans now hold the governorships in the country's four largest states:
California, Texas, New York, and Florida (the combined population of these states is about
100 million people).
Such wide-ranging reversals of political momentum -- of such a magnitude (at both the state
and federal levels) -- are rarely seen in American political history, yet this recent reversal
seems to have received little more than scant notice.
Nonetheless, this recent trend is hard to ignore or explain away, and when compared to other
historical American political trends, may point to a long-term trend in favor of the Republican
Party.
Tom Elia is a contributing editor for The New Editor.
Paul Geary
David Rogers