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Bush wins by a hair. It may not be enough.
By David Rogers
Wednesday, October 14, 2004
The New Editor
"Being lectured by the president on fiscal responsibility is a little bit like Tony Soprano talking
to me about law and order."
That is the takeaway line from tonight’s debate. That is not good news for the president.
When a Republican president is out-flanked on fiscal discipline by the most liberal senator
from Massachusetts, he is doing something horribly, horribly wrong.
And that wasn’t the only time the president ended up to the left of the man he called an
inhabitant of the “far-left bank” of American politics. Kerry flanked W. on immigration,
where the president was so busy being “compassionate” that he forgot to be “conservative.”
That’ll cost the president his shot at New Mexico, and it may put Arizona back in play. His
only saving grace is that Kerry doesn’t dare boast about being more conservative than the
president on immigration because Kerry needs the La Raza radicals on his side.
Kerry spent a lot of time pandering to his base – reminding us all that when meteors strike
the Earth, and destroy all life, women, minorities, and the poor will be hardest hit.
As in the last two debates, the best line from the Republican was of dubious authenticity –
Bush reacted disbelievingly to Kerry’s assertion that Bush had said “I'm not that concerned”
about Bin Laden. But he said almost exactly that in a press conference at the White House
more than a year and a half ago.
The good news for Bush was that he was relaxed, loose, and cool, didn’t make faces, and
managed to respond warmly to “Bob” Scheiffer, who must have felt like there was a rule that
the president start every answer with his name. Kerry, in contrast, looked tired, and seemed
overprepped.
Every time the debate wandered off-topic (that is, not domestic issues), Bush scored. His
anecdote about a 19-year-old woman being the first Afghan voter, about signing the
Homeland Security Bill, and his language about “freedom on the march” all served him well.
On domestic issues, Bush was strong on education and social security, both areas where he
is a reformer of what are traditionally Democratic issue strongholds. On the flu vaccine,
Bush seemed brave, but caught by surprise by events and the question, and answered weakly.
Kerry hit Bush effectively on health insurance, but Bush’s market-based response was a
fairly clear, strong riposte – but not unlikely to make much impact on waivering
independents, though a tonic for conservatives otherwise discouraged by the president’s
comments and performance.
And Kerry took credit for the Clinton economy, something that Al Gore forgot to do in 2000.
Bush’s response, invoking a declining stock market and the 9/11 attacks, while intellectually
satisfying, came across as whiny.
Bush countered more effectively by slapping Kerry around on taxes, and the president’s
“pay-go means: You pay, and he goes ahead and spends” quip was effective.
Bush had more quips, and many of them were funny and well-delivered. But the best one
was Kerry’s, and the challenger seemed far more informed, while the president merely
seemed rehearsed, though, to his credit, he had more facts at the tip of his fingers than even
his admirers would expect.
On gay rights, Kerry lined up with the president, and, like his vice-presidential running mate,
managed to gay-bait by mentioned explicitly that Vice-President Cheney’s daughter is a
lesbian – a fact that is undeniable, and that makes the president’s Christian conservative base
very, very uncomfortable. Meanwhile, Kerry talked about religion and “respect.” Bush came
across as nice to gays, not the intolerant bigot he has been unfairly painted. He was clearly
interested in being perceived as nice to gays, latinos and blacks, and therefore gave Kerry a
chance to flank him to the right on gay marriage, immigration and affirmative action. As
usual, Bush’s response on affirmative action seemed designed to demoralize his base.
Meanwhile, it was Kerry, not Bush, who said “we’re all God’s children.” And he quoted
from the Bible from memory at least twice. That’s a message to evangelicals and believing
Catholics – you are not going to be shut out of a Kerry administration. I am not a “godless”
Democrat.
But Bush beat Kerry on national security and taxes – “Kennedy is the conservative senator
from Massachusetts.” That’s where Republicans always beat Democrats. As long as voters
focus on those issues, Bush wins. But if taxes get too low, and the war on terror is too
successful, W. will, like his father, follow those successes into retirement. If you make
foreign affairs and defense look easy, it looks like some rookie can do the job.
All in all, good enough. Barely. Maybe.
David Rogers is a contributing editor for The New Editor
Paul Geary
David Rogers